You heard me right.
I know this is a right-wing publication, and I know that I am a right-wing person – and probably most of the people who are reading this are too. You might doubt that someone of my innate conservative bias could ever pull off a non-partisan article, but hear me out.
I know a lot of you are hurting after Election Day, when Barack Obama swept America’s hearts and minds into a stunning political victory, and Democratic Congressional candidates rode the “change” wave into Washington. Yet while the media was celebrating the results and offering the nation collectible commemorative plates with Obama’s likeness, I was playing pundit for the future of this country. This is the result of my musings.
To begin with, let’s make some concessions to the Democrats for the duration of this article. Let’s assume that the Democratic Party holds all the ideological keys to solving the economy. I make my first postulate:
1. THE ECONOMY WILL NOT BE FIXED BY 2010.
If we are in the worst economic situation since the Great Depression, it will take longer than two years for the Democratic Congress to fully implement and see success from their plans. Franklin Roosevelt knew this all too well: even though the U.S.’s economy was growing during the New Deal, median unemployment was still at 17.2% throughout that time period. The economy will still be broken in two years.
2. VOTERS WILL BACKLASH IN 2010.
Even if the Democrats can fix the economy, they can't do it by the time midterm elections roll around. When voters go to the polls, they will see an Obama-Pelosi-Reed trifecta in power and will associate the Democrats with their continued economic misery (regardless of whether such association is deserved).
Since 1942, only three midterm elections have increased the president's party in either the House or the Senate, and only one increased it in both: 2002. Overwhelmingly throughout history the out-of-power party gains; this will be even more pronounced with a lackluster economy. Voters will correct the imbalance of power in Congress.
3. REPUBLICANS WILL DEADLOCK CONGRESS.
As Republicans come back to Congress with a vengeance, Democrats will not be able to complete their economic plans. The purely coincidental fact that it takes longer than two years to fix the United States' economy will come back to bite the Democratic Party. And with a deadlock in Congress, the Democrats will lose the carte-blanche they had from 2008 to 2010. As a result…
4. OBAMA WILL LOSE IN 2012.
And that's not even counting the issues of the Iraq War, health care, social policies, or foreign policies, all of which could become voting issues in 2012. Even if Obama wins one or more of these issues, he will still be weighed down by a crippling failure to fix the economy. Voters will be fed up with Barack Obama, his congressional cronies, and his broken promise of change, and there will be a stampede of elephants back to Capitol Hill.
This prediction, of course, is very short-sighted. I cannot predict the next four years of world events or what “international crisis” Joe Biden predicts will test Obama. But I can assure you that Obama’s prospects for the 2012 election are by no means a slam dunk. So have faith, and do not despair on Inauguration Day: there is a light at the end of the dark tunnel that awaits us.
Respectfully submitted,
Benjamin Ronald Kantack
[Benjamin Kantack is a political science and Spanish major at UNL.]
December 1, 2008
Why Barack Obama Will Lose in 2012: A Non-Partisan Prediction
Posted by Code Walrus at 11:58 PM
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3 comments:
Benjamin- This was a very interesting article. I think it's too early to draw the conclusions you do, however. The argument depends too heavily on that backlash against the Democrats, which is very hypothetical at this point. If the depression had begun only after Obama took office, as the Republicans may have been hoping, then he might well be blamed. But in fact the economy is crashing at the very end of eight years of Bush and Republican rule. If either ruling party is counted responsible for this, it is easy to see where the blame lies.
Whether voters will want a change back to elephants in two years will depend less on the economy than on how well Obama stays respected. The 2002 election that broke the usual pattern by increasing the representation of the ruling party can surely be attributed to 9-11 and the perception that Bush and his administration were strong leaders who had the crisis well in hand. The Iraq fiasco eroded this perception. When President Bush, in the middle of the Katrina disaster, uttered his famous line: "You're doing a heck of a job, Brownie!", all but his most die-hard supporters realized that the President was a clueless twit and that his administration was composed of incompetents. It was all downhill for the Republicans from that point.
For the Democrats to stay on top in 2010, 2012, and beyond, they do not have to have the economy fixed. All they have to do is avoid the high-handed arrogance and the prattfalls which mark the current administration and signal that they don't know what they are doing, or don't care about the people. Anxious voters will put up with a good deal of pain, so long as they feel that their government is at least on their side, competent, and trying.
For his part, Obama's priority will be to consolidate his own power and remain respected. His cabinet appointments and every other move he has been making show that he is less interested in "change" and social revolution than in rising to a position of chief over the existing political establishment. The Bush administration, with its congressional enablers of both parties, has given the presidency unprecedented, and nearly dictatorial, powers. There is no guarantee that future presidents more capable than Bush will feel the need to relinquish that power or submit to elections at all. Unlike Bush and McCain, Obama seems to be highly intelligent, well-educated, well-rounded, polished, and self-controlled. The Bush administration has succeeded in converting America from a republic to an empire, but it may be Obama who becomes our first real emperor.
Very interesting article. Perhaps not a perfect prediction but probably close.
I fully agree with these predictions.
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